Donald Trump gains strength again in swing state: polls

Former President Donald Trump has slightly closed his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, according to a poll released Tuesday.

The latest poll from Emerson College Polling and RealClearWorld showed Trump leading in Arizona by 2.8 percentage points (50 percent to 47.2 percent), according to responses from 920 likely voters on September 27 and 28.

The results are a good sign for Trump, who was significantly closer to Harris at 49 percent to 48 percent in mid-September. This poll by Emerson College Polling was conducted in the days following the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris on Sept. 10, in which the vice president saw a rise in poll numbers nationally.

Two other polls conducted in late September also showed the former president leading by narrow margins in Arizona. In an InsiderAdvantage poll conducted September 29 and 30, Trump was up 49 to 48 percent. In another AtlasIntel poll conducted Sept. 20-25, the former president led Harris 50 percent to 49 percent.

Shortly after Harris entered the 2024 race in late July, Trump once had a much clearer lead in Arizona. According to a survey by Emerson College/The hillIn a poll conducted on July 22 and 23, the former president's score was 49 to 44 percent. According to FiveThirtyEight, as of August 1, Trump was leading Harris by an average of 2.3 percentage points.

However, the overall race for Arizona and its 11 electoral votes remains close. According to tracking by FiveThirtyEight, Trump leads in the Grand Canyon State by an average of 1.5 percentage points in national polls.

But even the small lead is an improvement for Trump in recent weeks. As of September 18, FiveThirtyEight found that the candidates were at 47.1 percent in the national polls. As of September 1, Harris was up an average of 0.1 points.

FiveThirtyEight's election forecast puts Arizona in the “toss-up” category along with a handful of other key swing states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Harris is considered the favorite to win Michigan, the seventh closely watched battleground contest, although FiveThirtyEight puts the state in the “lean Democrat” category, meaning things could change in the final weeks of the campaign.

RealClearPolling (RCP) tracking also gives Trump a lead in Arizona, showing the former president gaining an average of 2.1 percentage points on Tuesday. In comparison, President Joe Biden was ahead by an average of 3 percentage points on October 1, 2020, according to RCP tracking. Biden won Arizona by fewer than 11,000 votes this election year.

RCP views Arizona’s race as a “competition,” as do the other six swing states and Minnesota.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email Tuesday seeking comment on the Arizona race.